MMYT · MakeMyTrip Limited

The thesis

MakeMyTrip's growth held in the September quarter, but the shares remain 50.9% below their 52-week high of $86.39, and the case is not yet confirmed by revenue or by Indian air travel. The next test is the December-quarter report, expected around late January 2027, which shows whether bookings growth near 20% in constant currency continues while air ticketing weakens.

The September-quarter report of 26 October 2026 showed gross bookings of about $2.72 billion, up 11.3% in US dollars and 20.9% in constant currency (Mitrade summary of the earnings call, 27 October 2026). That compares with 19.9% in the June quarter. Reported revenue was $235.2 million, up 2.5%, below analyst estimates of roughly $267.4 million to $269.1 million (Grafa, 26 October 2026). Net profit was $1.8 million against a $5.7 million loss a year earlier (Inc42, 26 October 2026).

The narrative is maturing: the results are out, growth is well known, and the latest analyst action is another target cut. B of A Securities lowered its target to $55 from $60 on 27 October 2026 and kept a Buy rating. The adjusted close on 28 October 2026 was $42.41, down 25.5% over three months, with the 14-day relative strength index (a 0–100 momentum gauge) at 46.9. The case breaks on a daily close below $40 or on bookings growth fading sharply from the current 20.9%.

Bullish and bearish views on MakeMyTrip Limited

The bull case on MakeMyTrip Limited (MMYT), in brief: Constant-currency bookings growth accelerated. The bear case: Revenue missed while bookings grew.

Bull case

• Constant-currency bookings growth accelerated. Gross bookings rose 20.9% in constant currency in the quarter ended 30 September 2026, up from 19.9% in the quarter ended 30 June 2026 (Mitrade, 27 October 2026; company release, 3 August 2026). The rupee fell roughly 10% against the dollar year over year, which accounts for the lower 11.3% growth in dollars.
• Hotels and buses carried the quarter. Hotel and package adjusted margin was $116.8 million, up 20.2% in constant currency, on 18.5% more room nights. Bus gross bookings rose 20% to $435.3 million (company release via Mitrade and Inc42, 26 October 2026).
• Air ticketing margin grew despite fewer passengers. Domestic departures fell 7% and international departures fell 4%, yet air-ticketing adjusted margin rose 14.3% in constant currency to $108.6 million (MarketBeat call highlights, 26 October 2026).
• Profit returned and costs fell. Net profit was $1.8 million versus a $5.7 million loss a year earlier. Service cost fell 4.6% to $49.2 million and personnel expense fell 4.9% to $38.4 million (Inc42, 26 October 2026).
• Buyback continues. The company spent $17.2 million on repurchases in the quarter, bringing cumulative repurchases to 2.23 million shares, covering 37% of the shares expected to be issued on its 2028 convertible bonds (MarketBeat, 26 October 2026).

Bear case

• Revenue missed while bookings grew. Reported revenue of $235.2 million, up 2.5%, fell short of estimates near $267 million to $269 million (Grafa, 26 October 2026). Customer inducement costs, booked as a deduction from revenue, rose to $108.9 million from $89.1 million (Inc42).
• Operating margin slipped. Adjusted operating profit was $46.2 million, or 1.7% of gross bookings, against 1.8% a year earlier (MarketBeat, 26 October 2026). Profit growth in constant currency was 13.8%, below the bookings growth rate.
• Air demand is shrinking. Air fares rose roughly 25–30% year over year, according to the CFO, and domestic departures fell 7% (MarketBeat, 26 October 2026). DGCA (India's civil aviation regulator) data, reported by Free Press Journal on 19 September 2026, showed August domestic passengers down 6%.
• Analysts keep cutting targets. B of A Securities moved its target to $60 from $71 on 28 September 2026, then to $55 on 27 October 2026. Management gave no numerical guidance on the call.
• Balance sheet carries no equity cushion. Total equity was negative $58.5 million at 31 March 2026, with an accumulated deficit of $2,792.7 million (company filing cited in the previous note).

Price setup

The adjusted close on 28 October 2026 was $42.41. That is 50.9% below the 52-week high of $86.39 and 25.5% lower than three months earlier. The previous note recorded a close of $46.78 on 15 October 2026, so the shares are lower despite the report.

Grafa reported the shares rose about 4.8% after the announcement on 26 October 2026. The $42.41 close and a relative strength index of 46.9 place the shares in the middle of that gauge's range, not in oversold territory. The $40 daily close that ends the case sits below the current price; the previous note placed it above the 52-week low of $32.67.

Crowding evidence is thin. Options markets had implied an earnings-day move of plus or minus 14.45% before the report (Unusual Whales, 15 October 2026). No earnings date falls inside the next month. SEC Form 4 insider filings do not apply to this foreign private issuer, and no share issuance into strength has been reported.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• ~8 November 2026 (est.), Diwali travel period. The festival season drives domestic and short-haul bookings. Demand reports from the company or airlines would test the 20.9% growth rate.
• ~15 November 2026 (est.), DGCA October domestic traffic data. A third consecutive year-over-year decline would extend the weakness behind the 7% drop in domestic departures. A rise would ease it.
• ~30 November 2026 (est.), further analyst target changes after the report. B of A moved to $55 on 27 October 2026. Other firms' revisions would show whether the cut is isolated.
• ~28 January 2027 (est.), December-quarter results. Outside the 30-day window, and the company has not announced the date. This report next tests constant-currency growth and the operating margin.

What would change the view

A report showing constant-currency bookings growth falling sharply from 20.9%, or net finance costs rising again with profit turning negative, would break the case. The September-quarter net profit of $1.8 million is small, so a swing back to a loss would not take much. Hotels and buses losing their roughly 20% growth would remove the offset to falling air volumes.

A daily close below $40 would end the case on price alone. The conviction level would rise if revenue growth moved toward the 20.9% bookings growth and operating margin held above 1.7% of gross bookings.

What it trades with

MakeMyTrip trades with Indian travel demand, the rupee and fuel-driven airfares more than with US travel names. Its reported results move with the rupee: a roughly 10% rupee decline separated 11.3% reported growth from 20.9% constant-currency growth. Indian domestic air traffic and airline capacity (DGCA monthly data) are the closest external readings on its air segment. Its convertible notes tie part of the share-price story to financing costs.