MMYT · MakeMyTrip Limited · Stock research

Current Thesis

The binary that dominated the July read has resolved, and it resolved upward. MakeMyTrip reported fiscal Q1 2027 (quarter ended 2026-06-30) before the open on 2026-08-03: gross bookings $2,854.7M, +19.9% in constant currency; adjusted diluted EPS $0.53 against a $0.45 consensus; adjusted revenue $309.737M against $292.523M expected. Reported revenue of $285.579M came in under the $292.523M consensus, because the rupee depreciated more than 10% year-over-year — the same quarter grew 16.1% in constant currency and 6.2% as reported.

Price followed rather than gapped. The 2026-07-25 close of $49.23 sat below both the 50-day (~$48.83) and 200-day (~$52.27) readings observed at the time; by 2026-08-14 the last close was $60.42, with a three-month return of +39.5% and RSI(14) at 72.8. Eight sessions of grind rather than a single-day repricing, which is what expanding participation looks like — and it puts the name in an accelerating phase dated by the 2026-08-03 beat and BofA's same-day target raise to $71 from $60.

The leg an investor is buying is a re-rating: an India travel franchise compounding bookings near 20% constant currency whose GAAP earnings are being masked by financing costs, priced 41.5% below its 52-week high of $103.21. The complication is the calendar. Nothing dated sits inside the next 30 days.

Bullish and bearish views on MakeMyTrip Limited

The model's bull view on MakeMyTrip Limited (MMYT), in brief: Bookings growth broadened. Q1 FY27 (2026-08-03 release): air ticketing $1,542.3M, +17.7% cc; hotels & packages $746.4M, +19.6% cc; bus ticketing $501.9M, +31.4% cc. The bus line, the highest-take-rate volume segment, grew fastest. Adjusted profitability held through an FX shock.… The bear view: GAAP earnings went the wrong way. Profit for the period fell to $9.1M from $25.8M and diluted EPS to $0.09 from $0.22, driven by net finance costs of $28.3M versus $4.0M a year earlier on the convertible senior notes due 2030. The gap between $0.53 adjusted and $0.09 reported is… Both cases follow in full.

Bull Case

• Bookings growth broadened. Q1 FY27 (2026-08-03 release): air ticketing $1,542.3M, +17.7% cc; hotels & packages $746.4M, +19.6% cc; bus ticketing $501.9M, +31.4% cc. The bus line, the highest-take-rate volume segment, grew fastest.
• Adjusted profitability held through an FX shock. Adjusted operating profit $51.4M and adjusted EBITDA $55.5M for the June quarter, delivered while the INR fell more than 10% YoY against the dollar.
• The print reversed the direction of estimate revisions. BofA raised its target to $71 from $60 with a Buy rating on 2026-08-03, citing revenue ~5% ahead of its estimate with hotels, packages and ground transport offsetting soft air. That follows a run of cuts — Goldman $117→$80 (2026-05-08), Citi $80→$70 (May 2026), UBS $85→$80 (2026-07-09).
• The company is a buyer of its own stock. 200,000 shares repurchased for $7.8M during the June quarter, with $95.8M of authorization remaining through March 2030 — no equity issuance into the recovery.
• Liquidity is not the constraint. Cash and equivalents $370.7M plus term deposits $423.6M as of the Q1 FY27 balance sheet.
• Targets still sit above spot. S&P Global's 10-analyst poll shows Strong Buy, average $75.4, low $65, high $85, versus the 2026-08-14 close of $60.42.

Bear Case

• GAAP earnings went the wrong way. Profit for the period fell to $9.1M from $25.8M and diluted EPS to $0.09 from $0.22, driven by net finance costs of $28.3M versus $4.0M a year earlier on the convertible senior notes due 2030. The gap between $0.53 adjusted and $0.09 reported is the entire valuation argument.
• Reported revenue missed. $285.579M against $292.523M consensus (2026-08-03). Anyone underwriting the dollar-reported line saw a miss.
• International outbound is still impaired. Management attributed subdued outbound demand to the West Asia conflict in the Q1 FY27 release; other transport was $64.0M, -1.5% cc — the only segment that shrank.
• The move is extended into an empty calendar. RSI(14) 72.8 at the 2026-08-14 close, with no confirmed company event before the 2026-09-28 AGM and no print until late October.
• The drawdown is not repaired. At $60.42 the stock remains 41.5% below the $103.21 52-week high; overhead supply from the 2025 de-rating has not been tested.

Setup & Price Structure

The pre-print configuration was a failed 200-day reclaim: $49.23 on 2026-07-25, under both the 50-day (~$48.83) and 200-day (~$52.27) values observed that day. The 2026-08-03 report inverted it. The last completed close of $60.42 (2026-08-14) sits above the July shelf near $55 that the stock lost in late July, and above the $52.27 200-day reading that capped the whole June–July bounce.

That makes $52 the structural line: a weekly close under it hands back the full post-print advance and returns price beneath the level that rejected it twice this summer. The $46 mark flagged in July remains the boundary of the prior $33–46 accumulation range.

Positioning observables, stated as observables: RSI(14) 72.8 (2026-08-14); +39.5% over three months; eight sessions of advance following a beat that produced only a low-single-digit move on the day itself; consensus targets of $75.4 average and $85 high still above spot, so the sell-side anchor is not yet a ceiling; a live repurchase authorization rather than issuance into strength. There is no imminent earnings date pinning the tape and no disclosed insider distribution in the material reviewed.

Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)

• No confirmed company-specific event inside the window (through ~2026-09-15). This is the state of the calendar; the re-rating has to carry itself on flow.
• ~mid-September 2026 (est.) — India DGCA monthly domestic air-traffic data for August. The monthly volume series is the cleanest external read on whether air ticketing sustains the +17.7% cc pace.
• 2026-09-28 — Annual General Meeting, Gurugram, 5:00 p.m. IST; record date 2026-08-03. Governance and capital-allocation commentary, outside the 30-day window.
• ~late October 2026 (est.) — Q2 FY2027 results (quarter ending 2026-09-30). The next binary: whether bookings growth holds near 20% cc and whether finance costs continue to swamp operating profit.

What Would Change Our Mind

The structure that has to hold is the post-print shelf, because it is the only thing separating this from the failed reclaim of early July. Losing the $52 area — a weekly close below $52 — puts price back under the 200-day reading that capped the June–July bounce and marks the August advance as another mean-reversion pop inside the larger drawdown. A subsequent weekly close under $46 would return the name to the $33–46 range it spent the spring in.

On fundamentals, the datapoint that would flip the read is the late-October Q2 FY2027 print showing gross-bookings growth decelerating meaningfully below the +19.9% constant-currency Q1 pace, or net finance costs (Q1: $28.3M) again converting a $51.4M adjusted operating profit into single-digit-million net income with no path shown to reduce the 2030 convertible burden. A second consecutive quarter where reported revenue misses consensus while only constant-currency and adjusted lines beat would argue the growth is consumed by FX and financing before it reaches shareholders.

On narrative phase, the flip from accelerating to saturated would be marked by the 2026-09-28 AGM and the late-October print passing without a new estimate-raising datapoint while price stalls in the $60s — attention without follow-through.

Correlation Notes

• USD/INR is a direct P&L input. More than 10% YoY rupee depreciation turned +16.1% cc revenue into +6.2% reported in Q1 FY27. Further INR weakness compresses every dollar-reported line regardless of volume.
• Indian domestic aviation volumes (IndiGo/InterGlobe capacity, DGCA monthly traffic) drive the $1,542.3M air-ticketing segment; crude and jet-fuel costs feed airfares and therefore both volume and take rate.
• Global OTA comps — Booking Holdings, Expedia, Airbnb, Trip.com Group — set the multiple regime for the category; a demand warning from any of them typically travels to MMYT within a session.
• EM/India equity beta. The August advance coincided with a broad risk-on tape (Dow record close 2026-08-04), so part of the move is market, not idiosyncratic.
• Rate path matters more than usual here given the convertible senior notes due 2030 sitting behind a $28.3M quarterly finance-cost line.