NEXA · Nexa Resources S.A.

The thesis

Nexa Resources is a zinc producer whose shares trade mainly on Boliden's pending purchase of its controlling holder, and the shares have drifted lower since mid-October while the approval steps stay on schedule. Nexa's Q3 2026 results (due after the close on 29 October 2026) and Boliden's extraordinary shareholder meeting on 23 November 2026 settle whether the 0.250 exchange ratio and a first-quarter-2027 closing hold.

The shares closed at $11.95 on 27 October 2026 (split- and dividend-adjusted daily closes), down from $12.65 on 14 October 2026. That is 27.8% below the 52-week high of $16.55. The three-month price change is -9.2% and the 14-day relative strength index (a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 42.6.

Boliden and Votorantim signed on 27 August 2026. Votorantim's 64.68% stake converts into newly issued Boliden shares at 0.250 per Nexa share, which Boliden valued at US$15.29 per Nexa share, a 14.2% premium to the 20-day volume-weighted average price on 1 July 2026. The minority tender that follows closing is priced off Boliden's share price, so $15.29 is an announcement-day value and not a fixed payout.

The narrative is maturing: the deal is two months old, the only new dated step since signing is the Boliden meeting notice of 13 October 2026, and the Nexa shares have given back the mid-October rebound. Conviction stays low because the tender price floats with Boliden and the shares have not narrowed the gap to the announced value.

Bullish and bearish views on Nexa Resources S.A.

The bull case on Nexa Resources S.A. (NEXA), in brief: Controlling seller is committed. The bear case: The tender price floats with Boliden.

Bull case

• Controlling seller is committed. The 27 August 2026 agreement covers all of Votorantim's 64.68% stake, per Boliden's announcement. Boliden's board has put the share issue to a vote on 23 November 2026, with a record date of 13 November 2026 (meeting notice of 13 October 2026).
• A minority exit route exists. The agreement provides a voluntary tender at the same 0.250 ratio after closing, expected in the first quarter of 2027 (Boliden, 27 August 2026). The announced US$15.29 value sits above the $11.95 close of 27 October 2026.
• Operating outlook pointed up. Nexa's Q2 2026 results guided to higher Q3 zinc output at Aripuanã and Cerro Lindo, with Vazante broadly in line. First-half 2026 zinc production was 159 kt against 2026 guidance of 310-360 kt (Form 6-K, 5 August 2026).
• Earnings improved in Q2. Second-quarter revenue was US$908 million, up 28% year over year, and net income was US$98 million. Adjusted EBITDA was US$286 million (Nexa Q2 2026 results, 5 August 2026).

Bear case

• The tender price floats with Boliden. The tender is priced off a 20-day Nasdaq Stockholm average of Boliden shares times 0.250. A weaker Boliden lowers the tender value, and there is no fixed US dollar floor.
• Approvals remain open. Closing needs Boliden shareholder authorisation of the consideration shares and regulatory clearances, with completion expected in the first quarter of 2027 (Boliden, 27 August 2026). The shareholder meeting is four weeks away.
• Analysts do not rate it a buy. Citigroup kept Neutral and raised its target to $12.50 on 14 April 2026. An aggregator reported a Hold consensus across seven analysts as of 1 October 2026.
• The shares trade thinly. About 35.3% of Nexa is free float after Votorantim's 64.68%. The shares closed at $13.01 on 18 September 2026, $11.80 on 1 October 2026, $12.65 on 14 October 2026 and $11.95 on 27 October 2026.
• Smelter recovery is unproven. A May fire at Cajamarquilla cut Q2 refined zinc output by about 7,000 tonnes, and zinc metal and oxide sales fell 7% year over year to 134 kt in Q2. Management expects recovery in the second half of 2026 (Nexa Q2 2026 results, 5 August 2026).

Price setup

The shares closed at $11.95 on 27 October 2026, below the 14 October 2026 close of $12.65 and 1.3% above the $11.80 close of 1 October 2026, the low of the recent range. The 52-week high is $16.55. The lower edge of the April breakout range, near $11, is the next support level the previous note named.

The 14-day relative strength index of 42.6 is neutral, up from 34.1 on 1 October 2026 but below the 50.1 reading of 14 October 2026. Momentum has faded without reaching an oversold reading.

Crowding evidence is thin. Nexa is a Luxembourg-domiciled foreign private issuer, so no SEC Form 4 insider series exists, and no share issuance into strength has been reported. Earnings are one trading day away, and the thin free float means a headline day can move the shares sharply either way.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• 13 November 2026: Record date for Boliden shareholders to vote at the extraordinary meeting.
• 17 November 2026: Deadline for postal votes and notices of attendance at the Boliden meeting.
• 23 November 2026, 10:00 CET: Boliden extraordinary general meeting on the in-kind share issue. This is the first hard closing condition.
• ~31 March 2027 (est.): Expected closing, which starts the voluntary minority tender.

Elapsed catalysts

• 29 October 2026 (after the close): Nexa Q3 2026 results, per the company's investor relations schedule. They test smelting sales against the 134 kt Q2 level and Aripuanã zinc against the 8,800-tonne Q2 level. (passed 8d ago)
• 30 October 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: Nexa Q3 results conference call. Management comments on Cajamarquilla recovery and the Boliden transaction timetable. (passed 7d ago)

What would change the view

A rejected Boliden share issue on 23 November 2026, a regulator refusing clearance, or a terminated agreement would end the Votorantim exchange as structured and break the case. A Q3 report showing Aripuanã zinc below 8,800 tonnes or smelter utilization below 71% would weaken the standalone floor under the shares.

On price, a weekly close below $11 would put the shares under the lower edge of the April breakout range and below the $11.80 close of 1 October 2026. A close above the $13.01 level of 18 September 2026 on confirmed Q3 recovery would argue for a higher rating.

The Q3 production figures were not found in a separate release as of 28 October 2026, so the Q3 results on 29 October 2026 are the first dated check on output.

What it trades with

Nexa's deal value moves with Boliden's share price on Nasdaq Stockholm, because the consideration and the minority tender both use the 0.250 ratio. Zinc and silver prices drive standalone earnings. Cerro Lindo's silver stream stepped from 65% to 25% in Q2 2026, which raises sensitivity to silver.

Peru-based smelting and mining operations tie results to Peruvian operating conditions and the Peruvian sol. A mandatory tender for the listed Peruvian subsidiary follows within six months of closing.