SPXC · SPX Technologies, Inc.

The thesis

SPX Technologies' data-center cooling forecasts have not changed since July, but the shares have fallen to $161.79, 34.3% below their 52-week high, on fears that warm-water chip cooling will shrink demand for cooling towers. The Q3 report, due after the close on 29 October 2026, settles whether management keeps its $430 million forecast for 2026 data-center revenue.

The adjusted close was $161.79 on 26 October 2026, against $171.91 on 13 October 2026 and $169.56 on 30 September 2026. The 52-week high in the same series is $246.41. The three-month change is -13.8%, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is 29.9, down from 46.8 on 13 October 2026 and close to the 25.7 reading of 30 September 2026. The narrative is maturing: the warm-water story is widely covered, and brokerages have kept cutting targets since the 13 October 2026 note, with Oppenheimer on 21 October 2026 and B. Riley Securities on 26 October 2026.

The rating stays low. The 13 October 2026 rebound has reversed, and the close now sits just above the $160 weekly level named in the previous note. Management's Q3 commentary is the only event that can address the technology question the price is carrying.

Bullish and bearish views on SPX Technologies, Inc.

The bull case on SPX Technologies, Inc. (SPXC), in brief: Backlog and forecast still stand. The bear case: A technology question drives the shares.

Bull case

• Backlog and forecast still stand. On 30 July 2026, management reported heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) backlog of $919 million, up 59% organically, and forecast $430 million of 2026 data-center revenue. No company disclosure has revised either figure since.
• Guidance was raised in July. Management lifted 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance to $8.20-$8.60 on 30 July 2026, after Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.02 against a $1.85 consensus, per MarketBeat and Earnings Whispers.
• Brokerages hold positive ratings. Oppenheimer maintained Outperform on 21 October 2026 and B. Riley Securities kept a positive rating on 26 October 2026. Their targets are $265 and $250. Wells Fargo (Overweight, $243 on 13 October 2026) and JPMorgan (Overweight, $225 on 9 October 2026) also kept ratings.
• Targets sit far above the close. The lowest target cited here, Baird's $220 from its 6 October 2026 initiation at Outperform, is above the $161.79 close. Wolfe Research assumed coverage at Outperform with a $250 target on 15 September 2026.
• Water controls widen the product range. SPX closed the roughly $410 million cash purchase of FIS Water on 15 September 2026. Management expects about $105 million of FIS Water revenue in 2026.

Bear case

• A technology question drives the shares. TIKR's 23 September 2026 account ties the drop from above $230 to an Nvidia keynote mention of warm-water cooling. No SPX disclosure since then addresses it.
• Target cuts continue. Oppenheimer lowered its target to $265 from $270 on 21 October 2026, and B. Riley Securities lowered to $250 on 26 October 2026. These follow the October cuts from Wells Fargo, JPMorgan and Truist.
• Growth has cost segment margin. Q2 HVAC revenue rose 27.6% while segment margin fell 260 basis points to 22.8%, per the 30 July 2026 release. A repeat in Q3 would show expansion costs outrunning pricing.
• Acquisitions blur organic growth. FIS Water and Neptronic each enter 2026 results part-way through the year. Any Q3 guidance increase has to be split between acquired revenue and organic cooling demand before it supports the case.
• The decline has resumed. The $161.79 close on 26 October 2026 is below the $169.56 close of 30 September 2026 and the $171.91 close of 13 October 2026. The $191.82 and $199 levels that failed after 28 August 2026 are far above.

Price setup

The adjusted series closed at $161.79 on 26 October 2026, 34.3% below the $246.41 52-week high. The three-month change is -13.8%. The RSI of 29.9 is near the oversold reading of 25.7 on 30 September 2026, which was followed by a rebound to a 46.8 reading by 13 October 2026 that has since faded.

Two levels frame the price. The $160 weekly-close level from the previous note is a small distance below the last close. The $169.56 close of 30 September 2026 and the $171.91 close of 13 October 2026 are overhead levels the shares have lost.

Crowding evidence is mixed. The earnings report is two sessions away, and brokerage target changes have been frequent. The price is not extended above a rising average. No insider selling or share issuance appears in the filings reviewed; the last 30 days show no SEC filings for the company.

Catalysts, next 30 days

No upcoming dated catalysts on file — the dated entries below have passed.

Elapsed catalysts

• 29 October 2026, after the close: SPX reports Q3 2026 results, with a call at 4:45 p.m. Eastern Time. Benzinga shows consensus of $2.17 adjusted EPS and $704.9 million revenue; Earnings Whispers shows $2.16-$2.17 and a lower revenue figure of roughly $669 million, so estimates vary by source. One Earnings Whispers page lists 2 November 2026, but the company's 7 October 2026 release set 29 October 2026. (passed 4d ago)
• 29 October 2026: Updated 2026 guidance including FIS Water. The split between acquired and organic revenue decides how much of any raise supports the cooling case. (passed 8d ago)
• After 29 October 2026: Brokerage target and rating changes usually follow the print, so the post-report revisions show whether the October cuts were a pause or a trend. (passed 8d ago)

What would change the view

The case breaks if Q3 results cut the $430 million 2026 data-center revenue forecast or report HVAC backlog below $919 million. A Q3 HVAC margin that falls again while segment revenue rises would show the Q2 pattern persisting. A downgrade from any of the brokerages that cut targets in October would add to that.

On price, a daily close below $150 would extend the decline well below the $160 weekly level and the $169.56 close of 30 September 2026. The case improves if management keeps both figures and the shares close back above $171.91, the 13 October 2026 close.

What it trades with

SPX trades with data-center infrastructure names because its Marley cooling towers and Neptronic controls depend on data-center construction. Its reaction to the Nvidia warm-water cooling mention shows sensitivity to cooling-technology news. SPX does not make power transformers. Its industrial HVAC and detection businesses also tie it to nonresidential construction.