Covered
SWKS · Skyworks Solutions, Inc.
Updated ·
Against its published line
Above its line on the last close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the thesis wrong. The dot is where the name closed on 14 October 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Kill line
A daily close below $76, which would undo the rebound from the 14 October 2026 close of $76.89 and return the shares to their post-merger low. A first combined outlook showing lower revenue, or a $500 million synergy target pushed past 36 months, also breaks the case.
Not a pickResearch coverage at low conviction. A medium-or-higher call would open a pick on the scoreboard.
Catalyst (3 days ago)
How picks are graded →The thesis
Skyworks Solutions has recovered to an $85.48 close on 27 October 2026, up from $76.89 on 14 October 2026, but the shares still need the first combined outlook with Qorvo to justify the move. Skyworks reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the market close on 3 November 2026, and that report settles the next three months. On current evidence the shares are about as likely to lag the S&P 500 as to lead it, so the rating stays low.
The company confirmed the date in an announcement on 20 October 2026, with a conference call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. December-quarter guidance will be the first that includes Qorvo, which closed into Skyworks on 5 October 2026. It will show whether combined revenue holds and whether the $500 million synergy target stays on its 24-to-36-month schedule.
The narrative is maturing: the merger closed on 5 October 2026, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has cooled to 55.2 from 70.7 on 18 September 2026, and the remaining news is the 3 November 2026 report. The shares are 6.5% below the $91.45 52-week high and have gained 36.8% over three months.
Bullish and bearish views on Skyworks Solutions, Inc.
The bull case on Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS), in brief: The merger is complete. The bear case: The first combined outlook is unproven.
Bull case
- The merger is complete. Skyworks closed the Qorvo combination on 5 October 2026 and keeps the Skyworks name and SWKS ticker (TipRanks). Deal-completion risk is gone.
- The synergy target is large. The 28 October 2025 merger announcement targeted $500 million or more of annual cost synergies within 24 to 36 months of closing. Management said the deal would add to adjusted earnings per share (EPS) soon after closing.
- Analyst targets have moved up. Susquehanna kept Neutral on 21 October 2026 and raised its target to $90 from $65. B. Riley upgraded to Buy on 6 October 2026 with a $107 target, projecting about 50% EPS growth from fiscal 2026 to fiscal 2028.
- The shares recovered after the post-closing slide. The close rose from $76.89 on 14 October 2026 to $85.48 on 27 October 2026, per adjusted daily closes. The $76 level in the previous note held.
- The shares pay a dividend. Investing.com put the yield at 3.38% on 6 October 2026.
Bear case
- The first combined outlook is unproven. Quarterly revenue before the merger was $935 million for the quarter ended 3 July 2026, with GAAP diluted EPS of $0.22 against adjusted EPS of $1.08 (Skyworks release, 28 July 2026). The December-quarter guide has no combined-company precedent.
- Wall Street is mostly neutral. One aggregator reported a Hold consensus on 22 October 2026, with 19 of 24 analysts at Hold. Citigroup's target is $90 and Susquehanna's is $90, both close to the $85.48 close.
- A bearish target sits far below the price. Mizuho kept Underperform on 9 October 2026 and raised its target to $61 from $52. Mizuho had earlier cut Skyworks and Qorvo on smartphone weakness (Seeking Alpha).
- Former Qorvo holders hold a large block. They received $32.50 in cash plus 0.960 Skyworks shares per Qorvo share and own about 37% of the combined company. Selling by holders who did not want the shares was a risk during the early-October slide.
- Rates remain a headwind. The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% on 15 September 2026 for the first time since 2007, and rate-hike odds reached 90% on 11 September 2026 (Benzinga).
Price setup
The last close was $85.48 on 27 October 2026. That is 6.5% below the $91.45 52-week high set in September. The post-merger low close was $76.89 on 14 October 2026, just above the $76 invalidation level in the previous note.
The 14-day RSI is 55.2, a neutral reading. On 14 September 2026 Benzinga flagged Skyworks at an RSI of 84 after a 22% weekly rally, so the overbought condition has fully cleared. The shares have gained 36.8% over three months.
Crowding evidence is thin on price. The one observable item is the imminent report on 3 November 2026, which puts a binary event within the next week. A Schedule 13G filing showed Abigail P. Johnson reporting a 12.6% stake as of 30 September 2026.
Catalysts, next 30 days
No other dated company event falls within 30 days.
Elapsed catalysts
- 3 November 2026: fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 report, after the market close. The call is at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. Guidance for the December quarter is the first outlook that includes Qorvo, and management's update on the $500 million synergy schedule is the other number to read. (passed 3d ago)
What would change the view
The case breaks if the 3 November 2026 outlook shows lower combined revenue, or if management moves the $500 million synergy target beyond 36 months. Evidence of handset-customer inventory cuts or lower content per phone would confirm the smartphone weakness Mizuho has cited.
On price, a daily close below $76 would return the shares to their post-merger low and undo the rebound from the $76.89 close of 14 October 2026. A report that supports revenue and the synergy timeline would move the case toward the higher analyst targets, B. Riley's $107 being the highest.
What it trades with
Skyworks trades with analog and radio-frequency chip peers and with large smartphone makers, since handset demand drives its revenue. Qorvo no longer trades after the 5 October 2026 conversion, so the closest direct peer has been absorbed. The shares also react to interest-rate moves: the 10-year yield above 5% on 15 September 2026 coincided with pressure on chip stocks.
Notes
- At the Qorvo merger closing on 5 October 2026, each Qorvo share converted into $32.50 in cash plus 0.960 Skyworks shares, leaving former Qorvo holders with about 37% of the combined company.
- Skyworks' fiscal year ends on the Friday nearest 30 September. Fiscal 2026 ended on 2 October 2026, days before the Qorvo closing.
- Results after the Qorvo closing will not compare like-for-like with earlier standalone Skyworks quarters.
- Qorvo shares were converted at the 5 October 2026 closing and no longer trade. The combined company keeps the Skyworks name and the SWKS ticker.
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