ZENA · ZenaTech, Inc.

The thesis

ZenaTech's drone-service revenue is growing quickly, but the shares have fallen below $1.00 while the company sells new stock into the decline. The full third-quarter report, expected around 13 November 2026, settles whether revenue lands inside the preliminary range of C$13.4 million to C$14.8 million (about US$9.5 million to US$10.5 million).

The shares closed at $0.98 on 22 October 2026, per adjusted daily closes. That is 80.6% below the 52-week high of $5.03 and 28.6% lower than three months earlier. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a 14-day momentum gauge, stood at 21.9, below the 30 mark that traders read as oversold.

The previous note set $1.00, Nasdaq's minimum bid price for continued listing, as the level that would end the case. The 22 October 2026 close is under it. The case now rests on the third-quarter revenue report and on how much stock the company issues before then.

The narrative is maturing: the company reaffirmed its revenue range on 13 October 2026 and launched an AI software suite on 22 October 2026, and the shares still fell from the last reported Nasdaq sale price of $1.35 on 7 October 2026 to $0.98.

Bullish and bearish views on ZenaTech, Inc.

The bull case on ZenaTech, Inc. (ZENA), in brief: Revenue is compounding. The bear case: New shares are being sold into the decline.

Bull case

• Revenue is compounding. ZenaTech's 29 September 2026 release reports second-quarter revenue of C$9.3 million, up 316% year over year, with Drone as a Service at C$8.6 million. First-half revenue was C$17.7 million, up 425%.
• Preliminary third quarter is well above the second. The company's 13 October 2026 release puts third-quarter revenue at C$13.4 million to C$14.8 million, against C$9.3 million in the second quarter. The company affirmed the range on 13 October 2026.
• Older acquisitions are growing. The 13 October 2026 release says locations acquired in 2025, about 20 mainly US Drone as a Service sites, averaged 27.1% organic revenue growth in 2026. This is the first organic figure the company has given.
• Canadian procurement is open. ZenaTech said on 17 September 2026 that it joined Canada's Defence Drone Initiative qualified-supplier pool. The release states this is not a procurement award, so a priced contract would be new evidence.
• Analysts sit far above the market. MarketBeat lists four analysts rating the shares Hold, with an average 12-month target of $4.50 in a $4.00 to $5.00 range, as of 10 October 2026. These are third-party targets set well above the $0.98 close.

Bear case

• New shares are being sold into the decline. ZenaTech's 8 October 2026 prospectus supplement raises its at-the-market program (Maxim Group and Northland Securities as sales agents) from $75 million to $150 million. About 29.7 million shares have raised about $57 million so far, leaving roughly $93 million of capacity.
• Dilution is large against the share count. The filing shows 201,157,883 shares outstanding on 7 October 2026. Selling 68,831,674 more at the assumed $1.35 would lift the count to about 269,989,557. At lower prices, more shares are needed to raise the same dollars.
• The listing threshold has been crossed. The shares closed at $0.98 on 22 October 2026, below Nasdaq's $1.00 minimum bid price. Nasdaq's rule issues a deficiency notice after 30 consecutive business days under $1.00. No such notice has appeared in company filings found as of 23 October 2026.
• Losses are large against cash. The 29 September 2026 release reports a second-quarter net loss of $22.5 million, with cash of $12.2 million and cash plus marketable securities of $34.6 million at 30 June 2026. The company gave no profit guidance for the third quarter.
• Defense products are slipping. On 6 October 2026, ZenaTech said the ZenaDrone 2000 counter-drone interceptor prototype is now expected to begin flight testing in Q1 2027. No priced defense contract has been disclosed.
• Governance news adds noise. On 20 October 2026, ZenaTech issued an open letter to Boardwalktech Software Corp. shareholders about governance. The headline carries no stated financial effect on ZenaTech.

Price setup

Adjusted daily closes show a steady decline: $1.71 on 28 August 2026, $1.42 on 25 September 2026, $1.11 on 9 October 2026 and $0.98 on 22 October 2026. Each step lower came after a company revenue or product release.

The RSI of 21.9 and the 80.6% gap below the 52-week high of $5.03 show the shares are far below their recent range. Nothing in the closes shows a rebound has started.

Crowding evidence points the other way from a squeeze. The observable items are the at-the-market selling capacity and a stream of company news releases. ZenaTech is a foreign private issuer, so US insider-transaction reports (Form 4) do not exist for it, and insider buying or selling cannot be checked that way.

The nearest price reference is the $1.00 Nasdaq threshold, now above the shares. The case ends on a close below $0.85, under the recent decline.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• ~13 November 2026 (est.): full third-quarter 2026 results. The date is estimated from the 13 November 2025 release of last year's third quarter. The report shows whether revenue lands in the C$13.4 million to C$14.8 million range, what share is acquired, and cash after the second-quarter figure of $34.6 million.
• Ongoing through November: at-the-market share sales. Sales are disclosed with later company filings. The amount sold, and the prices received, show how much funding the company draws at sub-$1.00 prices.
• Ongoing: Nasdaq minimum bid price. A deficiency notice, if issued, would be disclosed in a company 6-K filing.

Elapsed catalysts

• 2027 Q1 (company guidance): ZenaDrone 2000 flight testing. The defense case needs this milestone, and it moved out on 6 October 2026. (passed 31d ago)

What would change the view

The case breaks if the third-quarter report shows total revenue below the preliminary C$13.4 million to C$14.8 million range, or if the shares close below $0.85. Either would show that the revenue story is not supporting the stock.

It would strengthen if the report splits organic from acquired revenue and shows the 27.1% organic growth of older locations holding across the full portfolio. A priced Canadian defense order, or at-the-market sales slowing while the shares recover above $1.00, would also improve it.

A Nasdaq deficiency notice, or a ZenaDrone 2000 testing date moving past Q1 2027, would weaken it further.

What it trades with

ZenaTech traded with small-cap drone stocks around the 13 August 2026 White House proclamation imposing tariffs on foreign-made drones. Benzinga reported US drone makers rallying on 14 August 2026. ZenaTech's recent decline has come with its own financing and listing news. Sample sizes are too small to measure co-movement with other drone shares.