FIGR · Figure Technology Solutions
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $32.55
Updated ·
Price against the kill line
22.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $32.55, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 29.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $32.55, just over the 200-day moving average, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or Q4 2026 loan marketplace volume above the $6.7 billion top of the guide with a gross take rate above the 3.4% top of its range.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 June 2026, filed 14 August 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 226
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +112.7
- Operating margin (%)
- 34.5
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 475
- Price to earnings (×)
- 26.3
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 8.1
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 28.6
All filed numbers
What Figure Technology Solutions reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| filed | 226 | +112.7 | 34.5 |
| filed | 167 | +97.6 | 25.1 |
| filed | 160 | +90.7 | 18.1 |
| filed | 156 | +54.8 | 33.7 |
| filed | 106 | — | 26.1 |
| filed | 84.5 | — | 9.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 83.0 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 237 | 87.4 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 June 2025 | +181.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −86.5 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not reported |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 1,438 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 963 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 475 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 88.5 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,413 |
| Market value ($M) | 6,229 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 5,754 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 8.1 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 28.6 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 26.3 |
| Price to book value (×) | 4.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 13 November 2026): 8.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.7 days of average trading to cover, +19.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $309K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $153K | $114.8M |
The thesis
Figure Technology Solutions beat third-quarter forecasts and doubled its buyback authorization to $400 million on 12 November 2026. It also guided its fourth-quarter take rate down and warned of margin pressure from the Kiavi acquisition. The rating is Low because the guidance confirms the take-rate compression the case turned on. Quarterly operating data expected in early January 2027 and the fourth-quarter report show whether volume growth outruns the lower take rate.
The quarter itself was strong. Total net revenue was $287.1 million, up 84% from a year earlier, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.36, against consensus of $251.565 million and $0.27 (company release and Benzinga, 12 November 2026). Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $163.6 million, a 57.7% margin.
The forward picture is weaker. On the 12 November 2026 call, management guided fourth-quarter loan marketplace volume to $6.2–6.7 billion including a full quarter of Kiavi, and the gross take rate, the share of volume Figure keeps as revenue, to 3.1%–3.4%, down from 3.9% in Q3. The shares closed at $25.67 on 12 November 2026, up from $24.19 the session before. That close is still 67.1% below the $78.00 intraday high of 20 January 2026, so the price already assumes Figure earns much less on each dollar of loans than it did a year ago.
Bullish and bearish views on Figure Technology Solutions, Inc.
The bull case on Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. (FIGR), in brief: revenue and EPS beat clearly. The bear case: take rate guided sharply lower.
Bull case
- Revenue and EPS beat clearly. Q3 revenue of $287.1 million beat the $251.565 million consensus, and EPS of $0.36 beat $0.27 (Benzinga, 12 November 2026). Net income was $89.3 million (company release, 12 November 2026).
- Volume more than doubled. Loan marketplace volume was $5.796 billion, up 135% year over year, including $677 million from Kiavi after the deal closed on 1 September 2026 (company release, 12 November 2026). Volume excluding Kiavi was $5.119 billion, at the top of the $4.8–5.2 billion guide (operating data release, 7 October 2026).
- Margin rose despite the deal. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 57.7% in Q3, up from 55% in Q2. Management kept its 60% medium-term margin target on the 12 November 2026 call.
- Buyback doubled. The board added $200 million to the repurchase authorization, for $400 million in total (company announcement, 12 November 2026). Management said on the call that purchases begin the day after the call and that the original $200 million had not been used in the open market.
- Standalone take rate held up. Management said the net take rate excluding Kiavi was 3.7% in Q3, above guidance, against 3.5% for the combined business (earnings call, 12 November 2026).
Bear case
- Take rate guided sharply lower. The Q4 gross take rate guide of 3.1%–3.4% compares with 3.9% in Q3 and 5.2% a year earlier (12 November 2026 release and call). Management said residential transition loans earn a 1.5%–2% gross take rate and Connect home equity lines 2.9%–3.4% over the next six to twelve months.
- Kiavi dilutes margin near term. Management said Kiavi ran at or below a 40% adjusted EBITDA margin before the deal and that Q4 brings $18–23 million of added adjusted expenses (earnings call, 12 November 2026). It gave no Kiavi EBITDA guidance.
- Debt has tripled this year. Total debt was about $1.74 billion on 30 September 2026, against about $557 million on 31 December 2025 (Q3 balance sheet). The Kiavi deal was funded mainly by $600 million of 8.500% senior notes due 2031 (Form 8-K, 1 September 2026). The 12 November 2026 Form 8-K also reports a new material agreement and a direct financial obligation.
- Reporting is shifting. Figure renamed its volume metric to include Kiavi's investor loans, and management said on 12 November 2026 it will emphasise gross take rate and contribution margin. Adjusted EBITDA has excluded acquisition-related costs since Q2 2026, so year-over-year comparisons need care.
- A short seller disputes the technology claim. Morpheus Research, which says it holds short positions, alleged on 28 September 2026 that Figure misrepresents its use of blockchain and cited 2025 delinquent balances of 5.46%. Figure called the claims a misunderstanding of how blockchain is integrated into its loan lifecycle.
- A registration allows new shares. Figure filed an automatic securities registration on 2 October 2026 covering debt, common and preferred stock and other securities, with no size or timing disclosed.
Price setup
The shares closed at $25.67 on 12 November 2026, after a 52-week closing low of $20.90 on 5 November 2026. The five sessions since that low closed at $22.73, $24.52, $23.34, $24.19 and $25.67. The rebound began before the report and continued on it.
The close sits below both the 50-day moving average of $28.56 and the 200-day moving average of $32.34 (adjusted daily closes, 12 November 2026). The shares are down 18.3% over three months and 67.1% below the $78.00 intraday high of 20 January 2026. A close back above the 200-day average would be the first sign that the market has moved past the take-rate cut. The $20.90 closing low of 5 November 2026 is the reference below.
Insider activity from August to October was routine. SEC Form 4 filings show the chief financial officer selling under a Rule 10b5-1 plan in August, and shares withheld for tax from the chief executive at an average of $23.95 on 22 October 2026 and 23 October 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- ~7 January 2027 (est.): Preliminary Q4 2026 operating data, based on the 7 October 2026 timing of the Q3 release. Shows whether Loan Marketplace volume lands inside, above or below the $6.2-6.7B guide that includes a full quarter of Kiavi.
- ~25 February 2027 (est.): Q4 2026 and full-year results. Tests the 3.1%-3.4% gross take rate guide, the size of Kiavi's margin drag, the first contribution-margin disclosure and how much of the $400M buyback was used.
- Unscheduled: Possible prospectus supplement under the 2 October 2026 securities registration. A common-stock sale would offset the buyback and add shares near the lows; a debt offering would add to borrowing already near $1.74B.
What would change the view
A daily close above $32.55, just over the 200-day moving average, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or Q4 2026 loan marketplace volume above the $6.7 billion top of the guide with a gross take rate above the 3.4% top of its range.
What it trades with
Figure trades with fintech and consumer-credit lenders because its revenue depends on loan origination volume. That volume moves with interest rates, home-equity demand and credit conditions. Kiavi's residential transition loans to property investors add exposure to housing turnover and investor-lending credit. The shares also trade with crypto-linked financial names because Figure presents its loan platform as built on blockchain, the claim Morpheus disputes. A pullback by the buyers of Figure-originated loans would hit both volume and take rate at once.
Notes
- Dual share-class structure: Class A trades publicly; Class B is held by insiders including founder Mike Cagney (12 August 2026 Form 4).
- From Q3 2026 Figure reports Loan Marketplace volume, which includes Kiavi's investor loans and replaces Consumer Loan Marketplace volume; earlier guides used the old metric.
- Adjusted EBITDA excludes acquisition-related costs from Q2 2026 and marketable-securities valuation changes from Q1 2026, so prior-year comparisons are not like for like.
- The 1 September 2026 Form 8-K reports about $590M of cash consideration for Kiavi, net of cash acquired; trade press quoted ~$717M at announcement.
- Democratized Prime keeps loans on the balance sheet (about $600M per a 4 November 2026 preview), so the asset-light marketplace description is only partly accurate.
- A securities registration filed 2 October 2026 covers debt, common and preferred stock, warrants, purchase contracts and units; no size or timing is disclosed.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 total net revenue was $287.1M, up 84% year over year; net income $89.3M; diluted EPS $0.36, against consensus of $251.565M revenue and $0.27 EPS. Figure Q3 2026 results release; Benzinga · as of
- Q3 2026 Loan Marketplace volume was $5.796B, up 135% year over year, including $677M from Kiavi; volume excluding Kiavi was $5.119B against a $4.8-5.2B guide. Figure Q3 2026 results release and 7 October 2026 operating data release · as of
- Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $163.6M at a 57.7% margin; gross take rate 3.9% (5.2% a year earlier) and net take rate 3.5% (3.7% excluding Kiavi). Figure Q3 2026 results release and earnings call · as of
- Q4 2026 guidance: Loan Marketplace volume of $6.2-6.7B including a full quarter of Kiavi, gross take rate of 3.1%-3.4%, and $18-23M of added adjusted expenses versus Q3. Figure Q3 2026 earnings call · as of
- Share repurchase authorization increased by $200M to $400M; management said the original $200M had not been used in the open market. Figure announcement and Q3 2026 earnings call · as of
- Management said Kiavi ran at or below a 40% adjusted EBITDA margin before the acquisition and kept a 60% medium-term margin target for Figure. Figure Q3 2026 earnings call · as of
- Total debt was about $1.74B at 30 September 2026, up from about $557M at 31 December 2025; Kiavi was funded mainly by $600M of 8.500% senior notes due 2031. Q3 2026 balance sheet; Form 8-K of 1 September 2026 · as of
- Morpheus Research, which says it holds short positions, alleged Figure misrepresents its use of blockchain; Figure called the claims a misunderstanding of its loan lifecycle. Investing.com and The Defiant coverage of the Morpheus report · as of
Sources
- Figure Technology Q3 Earnings: Revenue Up 84% to $287M · stocktitan.net ·
- Figure Technology Solutions Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results · globenewswire.com ·
- Figure Technology Solutions Q3 Earnings Call Highlights · finance.yahoo.com ·
- Earnings call transcript: Figure Technology tops Q3 2026 estimates, shares rise · investing.com
- Figure Technology Solutions reports preliminary September Q3 2026 operating data · finviz.com
- Finviz ·
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