Watching
ODD · ODDITY Tech Ltd.
Updated ·
Against its published line
Above its line on the last close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the thesis wrong. The dot is where the name closed on 9 October 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Kill line
A weekly close below $14.35, the 28 August 2026 close before the second-quarter report, which would erase the post-results rerating; or third-quarter adjusted EBITDA below the guided $18–20 million range.
Open pick Medium conviction, opened at $18.92. Since then +11.6% against the S&P 500's +1.9% (+9.7 pp). Kill line at open: $14.35 (weekly close); graded by at the latest.
How picks are graded →The thesis
ODDITY Tech remains a recovery case resting on one guidance figure: on 9 September 2026 management guided third-quarter revenue down only about 5% year over year, after the second quarter beat the company's own targets. The third-quarter report, which third-party earnings calendars list for 17 November 2026 or 18 November 2026, decides it. The company has not yet confirmed the date.
The guidance carries more weight than usual because of when it was given. The company set it on 9 September 2026, with most of the July–September quarter already over. Per the 9 September 2026 6-K, third-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) is guided to $18–20 million. Fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA is guided to $30–32 million on revenue down about 19%.
The narrative is maturing: no company news has appeared since JPMorgan's 21 September 2026 reinstatement at Neutral with an $18 target, yet the shares kept rising and closed at $19.55 on 8 October 2026. That close sits above four of the five named post-results analyst targets. The September rerating holds only if the November report delivers the guided improvement.
Bullish and bearish views on ODDITY Tech Ltd.
The bull case on ODDITY Tech Ltd. (ODD), in brief: The company beat its own guidance. The bear case: The price sits above most named targets.
Bull case
- The company beat its own guidance. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $12.9 million, reported 9 September 2026, cleared the $8–10 million range the company set on 2 June 2026. Benzinga recorded adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 against a $0.16 estimate.
- Third-quarter guidance sits well above estimates. Benzinga reported on 9 September 2026 that the company guided third-quarter sales to $140.5 million against a $122.6 million estimate, and fiscal 2026 sales to $656.0 million against $628.1 million.
- Buybacks cut the share count by about 20%. Per the 9 September 2026 6-K, the company repurchased 11.7 million shares for about $163 million in 2026 through the second quarter. It still held $561.2 million in cash, equivalents and investments plus $350 million of undrawn credit.
- SpoiledChild keeps growing. The 9 September 2026 release said the SpoiledChild brand is on track to grow at least 35% versus 2025 and approach $350 million of 2026 revenue.
Bear case
- The price sits above most named targets. All five post-results targets carry neutral ratings: Jefferies $18 (9 September 2026), Morgan Stanley $16.50, Truist $18 and Evercore ISI $21 (all 10 September 2026), and JPMorgan $18 (21 September 2026). Only Evercore ISI's target is above the 8 October 2026 close of $19.55.
- The analyst stance is cautious. MarketBeat-syndicated reports on 16 September 2026 counted 14 covering firms with an average "Reduce" rating, made up of four sells and ten holds. Their $27.23 average target still includes targets set before the 2026 collapse.
- Profitability is far below last year. Per the 9 September 2026 6-K, second-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $12.9 million against $69.5 million a year earlier. Gross margin fell to 68.7% from 72.3%, and revenue fell 25% to $180.5 million.
- The advertising fix has no measured target. On 9 September 2026 management said it is "encouraged by the progress" on IL MAKIAGE's advertising-algorithm problem. It gave no cost-per-acquisition figure that would show the problem is fixed.
Price setup
The shares closed at $19.55 on 8 October 2026 in split- and dividend-adjusted daily closes. That is 66.4% below the 52-week high of $58.18 and 18.1% above the level of three months earlier. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) stood at 61.3, firm but short of the 70 reading usually read as overbought.
The key reference level is $14.35, the 28 August 2026 close before the second-quarter report. Everything above it is the post-results rerating. The shares have held near $19–20 since early October, closing at $19.59 on 5 October 2026, $19.25 on 6 October 2026 and $19.55 on 8 October 2026.
Crowding is visible in one place. Benzinga attributed part of the 9 September 2026 jump to a short squeeze, so some of the September buying came from short sellers closing out bets and need not repeat. The company is a net buyer of its own shares, with no share issuance into the advance.
Catalysts, next 30 days
- ~30 October 2026 (est.): announcement of the third-quarter results date. The company announced its first-quarter date on 15 May 2026, 18 days before the 2 June 2026 report. A confirmed date near the mid-November calendar listings would end the 2026 reporting slippage.
- ~17 November 2026 (est.): third-quarter 2026 results. This falls just outside the 30-day window, but the case turns on it. One third-party calendar lists 17 November 2026 and another 18 November 2026. The report shows whether revenue landed near the guided 5% decline, whether adjusted EBITDA reached $18–20 million, and whether the fiscal-year $30–32 million range holds.
What would change the view
The case breaks if the third quarter misses guidance the company set with most of the quarter already over. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA below $18 million, revenue falling well beyond the guided 5%, or a cut to the fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA range of $30–32 million would each show the IL MAKIAGE advertising repair has stalled. Management describing acquisition costs as unchanged or worse would do the same.
On price, a weekly close below $14.35 would undo the post-results rerating whatever the report says. A later report date announced without explanation would also weaken the case, because 2026 dates have already slipped twice.
The case strengthens if third-quarter revenue beats the $140.5 million guide and fourth-quarter guidance points to a return to year-over-year growth. Named analysts lifting targets above Evercore ISI's $21 would confirm it.
What it trades with
The shares trade mostly on company-specific news. On 9 September 2026 Benzinga reported that consumer discretionary stocks fell while ODDITY rose sharply on its results, so the sector's daily moves explain little of this stock's behaviour.
The company sells beauty and wellness products directly to consumers online and depends on paid digital advertising to find customers. Changes in online ad pricing or platform algorithms therefore hit it harder than store-based beauty brands.
Notes
- Foreign private issuer (Israel): reports via 6-K and 20-F, not 10-Q, so quarterly detail is thinner than a US domestic filer's.
- Dual-class structure: listed Class A shares versus founder-held Class B super-voting shares; public holders do not control the vote.
- Reporting dates slipped in 2026: first quarter to 2 June 2026 and second quarter to 9 September 2026, versus 4 August 2025 for the year-earlier second quarter.
- The company has never named the advertising partner behind the 2026 customer-acquisition cost shock.
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