SNEX · StoneX Group Inc.

The thesis

StoneX Group's earnings are still growing year over year, but the shares closed at $56.04 on 28 October 2026, 39.5% below the 52-week high of $92.67, because revenue fell from the prior quarter. Fiscal fourth-quarter net operating revenue against the $719.7 million reported for fiscal Q3 settles whether earnings have stabilised.

The narrative has failed as a momentum story: the shares fell 26.8% over three months to 28 October 2026, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI, a 0-100 gauge of recent buying versus selling) stood at 28.3, a reading usually described as oversold. The close was $59.92 on 15 October 2026, $65.81 on 2 October 2026 and $69.46 on 4 September 2026, so each earlier rebound attempt has reversed.

The reported business numbers have not changed since the 5 August 2026 results. Net income of $127.9 million was up 102% year over year, yet the shares have kept falling. The market is pricing the sequential decline from fiscal Q2, not the annual growth. The rating stays low: the next report is the first test of that decline, and no new company data has arrived since the previous note.

Bullish and bearish views on StoneX Group Inc.

The bull case on StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX), in brief: Annual growth is large. The bear case: Revenue already fell sequentially.

Bull case

• Annual growth is large. StoneX's fiscal Q3 release (5 August 2026) reported net operating revenue of $719.7 million, up 47% year over year, and net income of $127.9 million, up 102%.
• Derivatives pricing improved with volume. Fiscal Q3 listed-derivatives revenue was $284.3 million, up 125%, on 97,944 thousand contracts, up 73%. Average revenue per contract was $2.61, up 23% (Q3 release, 5 August 2026).
• The commodity and FX franchise keeps widening. StoneX bought Colombian coffee trader Integra Trading S.A.S. (2 October 2026) and agreed on 12 August 2026 to acquire Brazil's Banco Travelex S.A., subject to Brazilian Central Bank approval.
• A director bought in the mid-$60s. Director Dhamu R. Thamodaran bought 2,500 shares at an average $64.4824, reported in SEC Form 4 filings on 10 August 2026. The shares now trade below that price.
• Buyback permission is live. The 5.0 million-share fiscal 2027 repurchase authorization became effective 1 October 2026, per the 8-K filed 26 August 2026. Actual repurchases will appear in the 10-K and the first-quarter 10-Q.

Bear case

• Revenue already fell sequentially. Fiscal Q3 net operating revenue was down 13% from Q2's $829.1 million, and net income fell 27% from $174.3 million. Return on equity dropped from 26.5% to 18.4% (Q3 release and call materials, 5 August 2026 and 6 August 2026).
• The shares reacted badly to the print. They fell 12.23% on 6 August 2026, the session after the Q3 release, despite net income up 102% year over year (StockTitan, 6 August 2026).
• The price keeps breaking lower. The close of $56.04 on 28 October 2026 is under the $59.92 close of 15 October 2026 and the $64.85 close of 11 August 2026 (adjusted daily closes).
• Retail revenue is shrinking. Self-Directed operating revenue fell 13% year over year to $96.3 million in fiscal Q3 (5 August 2026 release).
• Insider selling preceded the drawdown. Officer Diego Rotsztain sold 20,630 shares at an average $74.4007 on 24 July 2026, and director John Moore Fowler sold 1,575 shares at $75.41 on 5 August 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings).
• Analyst support softened. Jefferies cut its rating from Buy to Hold on 20 July 2026 (Fintel, Benzinga). Aggregator target pages mix pre-split and post-split figures, so no single consensus target is cited here.

Price setup

The adjusted daily close was $56.04 on 28 October 2026. That is 39.5% under the 52-week high of $92.67, and the three-month change is -26.8%. The RSI of 28.3 sits close to the 26.6 reading of 15 October 2026, so selling pressure has not eased much in two weeks.

The 3-for-2 split took effect on 20 July 2026, and all prices here are split-adjusted. Adjusted closes show no recovery above $65.81 (2 October 2026) since the August low area near $64.85.

Crowding evidence is thin on the buying side. Insider sales in late July and early August came near $74-75, and the only reported insider purchase in the period was at $64.4824. No heavy retail attention, share issuance or unusual new buying shows in the filings. Recent headlines under the company's name are mostly StoneX's own research ratings on other companies (SoFi, Robinhood and Lumentum, 26 October to 28 October 2026), not news about the shares. An earnings report is expected about four weeks out.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• Rolling (2 business days after each trade): SEC Form 4 insider filings. Whether insiders buy below the August purchase price of $64.4824 or stay absent becomes visible within days.
• ~24 November 2026, est.: fiscal Q4 and full-year FY2026 results. StoneX reported fiscal 2025 results on 24 November 2025, and a GuruFocus listing shows 24 November 2026 with a call on 25 November 2026, unconfirmed by the company. One aggregator lists 4 November 2026, also unconfirmed. Net operating revenue against $719.7 million decides whether the 13% sequential decline has stopped.
• ~12 August 2027, est.: outside date for the Banco Travelex acquisition. Brazilian Central Bank approval or lapse is a checkable outcome for the payments build-out, well outside the 30-day window.

What would change the view

The case breaks if fiscal Q4 net operating revenue comes in below the $719.7 million reported for Q3, or if return on equity falls under the 18.4% of Q3. A daily close below $55 would show the market rejecting the stabilisation case before the report.

The case improves if fiscal Q4 net operating revenue holds at or above $719.7 million with listed-derivatives revenue near the $284.3 million of Q3 and average revenue per contract near $2.61. Fiscal Q4 contracts well below 97,944 thousand would point the other way. Self-Directed operating revenue falling below $96.3 million in a later quarter would show the retail weakness spreading.

What it trades with

StoneX earns most of its revenue from commodities, FX, listed derivatives and securities trading, so volatility and client activity drive results more than the crypto exchanges it is grouped with on screeners. Digital assets are a negligible share of revenue.

The Self-Directed segment ties part of the business to retail trading activity. The R.J. O'Brien acquisition, which closed 31 July 2025, laps fully in fiscal 2027, after which year-over-year comparisons stop benefiting from it.