SNEX · StoneX Group Inc. · Stock research

All prices split-adjusted from 2026-07-20 (3-for-2, distributed after the close on 2026-07-17). Divide any pre-split quote by 1.5 before comparing.

Current Thesis

Nothing in the six sessions since the last update reopened the momentum leg. The fiscal Q3 print on 2026-08-05 was a record on every headline line — net operating revenue $719.7M (+47% YoY), net income $127.9M (+102%), diluted EPS $1.00 (+85%), TTM net income $526.9M — and the market answered with a 12.23% down session on 2026-08-06. Price bottomed at a $64.85 close on 2026-08-11, sat at $67.10 on 2026-08-14 and $68.47 on 2026-08-21, which is 26.1% under the $92.67 52-week high with RSI(14) at 35.5. What has changed is corporate activity, not the tape: a definitive agreement to buy Banco Travelex S.A. on 2026-08-12, an EDX Markets collaboration with StoneX Digital on 2026-08-18, and the closed acquisition of Advanced Marketing Group on 2026-08-19. Three announcements in eight days moved the price by a couple of dollars off a washed-out low. The company has no scheduled print inside 30 days — fiscal year end is 2026-09-30 and Q4/FY results have historically landed in early-to-mid December — so the next hard resolution is roughly a quarter away and the shares trade on flow in the meantime.

Bullish and bearish views on StoneX Group Inc.

The model's bull view on StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX), in brief: Fiscal Q3 2026 (released 2026-08-05, quarter ended 2026-06-30): net operating revenue $719.7M vs $488.3M (+47% YoY); operating revenue $1,468.0M vs $1,024.3M (+43%); net income $127.9M vs $63.4M (+102%); diluted EPS $1.00 vs $0.54 (+85%); ROE 18.4% stated, 25.0% on tangible book. The bear view: A record trailing-twelve-month print produced a 12.23% single-session decline on 2026-08-06. Both cases follow in full.

Bull Case

• Fiscal Q3 2026 (released 2026-08-05, quarter ended 2026-06-30): net operating revenue $719.7M vs $488.3M (+47% YoY); operating revenue $1,468.0M vs $1,024.3M (+43%); net income $127.9M vs $63.4M (+102%); diluted EPS $1.00 vs $0.54 (+85%); ROE 18.4% stated, 25.0% on tangible book.
• Nine months to 2026-06-30: net income $441.2M (+100% YoY), diluted EPS $3.49 (+82%), net operating revenue $2,273.2M (+55%). Trailing-twelve-month diluted EPS $4.19 against the 2026-08-21 close of $68.47; stated book value per share $23.70 at 2026-06-30.
• Listed derivatives in Q3 FY26: 97,944K contracts (+73% YoY), revenue $284.3M (+125%), average rate per contract $2.61 (+23%), average daily client equity $15.0B (+129%). Volume and price per unit rose together.
• 2026-08-12: definitive agreement to acquire Banco Travelex S.A., a Brazilian FX-focused bank described as handling roughly US$6B in annual volume across about 20,000 clients, expected to close within 12 months subject to Brazilian Central Bank approval. It extends the Payments segment, which grew 13% YoY to $60.3M in Q3.
• 2026-08-19: acquisition of Advanced Marketing Group LLC (founded 2010, Wilsonville, Oregon; roughly 20 trading and operations staff across Oregon, Kansas, Texas, Virginia and Canada), folded into StoneX Supply & Trading's feed-ingredients business. Terms undisclosed.
• 2026-08-10 trade, reported 2026-08-11: director Dhamu R. It remains the only disclosed open-market buy after the three-month, $94.2M selling stretch that ran into the June high.
• Thin published sell-side, but positive: WallStreetZen showed a one-year target of $81.33 and stockanalysis.com a two-analyst average of $82, both retrieved 2026-08-23.

Bear Case

• A record trailing-twelve-month print produced a 12.23% single-session decline on 2026-08-06. That reaction, not the growth rate, is what the last three weeks of tape have been digesting.
• Sequential direction turned in Q3 FY26: net operating revenue -13% from Q2's $829.1M, net income -27% from $174.3M, ROE from 26.5% to 18.4%. Q2 FY26 stands as the peak quarter until December says otherwise.
• Self-Directed/Retail operating revenue fell 13% YoY to $96.3M while every other segment grew, so the consumer-facing line is already contracting.
• Coverage is two analysts deep on published 12-month forecasts, and aggregators are still mixing pre- and post-split figures — one screener carried a $125.46 average against a $112.43 "current price" after the split. There is no analyst-revision engine to re-rate this name between prints.
• The "beat" framing on 2026-08-05 was unusable in both directions: Benzinga scored $1.00 EPS against $0.82 and $1.468B revenue against a $661.789M bar, while Investing.com scored the same $1.00 as an 18.7% miss versus $1.23.
• Two undisclosed-terms deals in a week (WCS International on 2026-03-31, Advanced Marketing Group on 2026-08-19) plus a pending bank purchase means the acquisition cadence is continuous and unpriceable from outside. R.J. O'Brien (closed 2025-07-31) laps fully in FY2027, when the inorganic contribution to +47% growth stops flattering comparisons.
• GuruFocus recorded the shares up 64.1% year-to-date as of 2026-08-12. A drawdown of 26.1% from the high has not undone the year's move, so there is still gain to distribute.

Setup & Price Structure

• The narrative is dead for the leg an investor was actually buying. Dating it: the $139.01 all-time-high close on 2026-06-18 (pre-split), a 22.4% drawdown inside a month, the 3-for-2 distribution after the close on 2026-07-17, and then a record print on 2026-08-05 that was sold 12.23% the next session. A narrative that cannot hold a bid on +102% net income growth has stopped being the reason the stock moves.
• What is left underneath is a diversified-brokerage roll-up compounding revenue through acquisition, and that story is not the one that carried the shares from $92.67-equivalent to the June high. It has to be re-underwritten at the December print.
• Structure now: closes of $64.85 (2026-08-11), $67.10 (2026-08-14), $68.47 (2026-08-21). The low is three weeks old and has held, but the recovery has not retraced the 2026-08-06 gap, and the shares are 8.4% lower over three months. RSI(14) at 35.5 is oversold-adjacent without being washed out.
• The $64 area is the floor of the May consolidation shelf (roughly $96 pre-split) and the level the 2026-08-11 low respected. The overhead problem is the $75–80 zone, where the insider distribution ran before the June top.
• Crowding and positioning observables, stated as observables: retail-facing coverage has flipped to backward-looking performance pieces (2026-08-12 and 2026-08-21 both "what $1,000 invested five years ago would be worth"), which is attention about the past rather than a new bid; insider flow over the last three months is $94.2M of sales against one $161,206 purchase; published forecasts exist from two analysts; there is no earnings date inside 30 days to force positioning either way.

Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)

• ~2026-09-30 — fiscal year end. August and September listed-derivative volumes and client float set the FY2026 base FY2027 must lap.
• ~2026-12-09 (est.) — fiscal Q4 and full-year FY2026 results. Historically the first half of December; the next hard fundamental resolution.

Elapsed catalysts

• None company-scheduled inside the window. The 30 days from 2026-08-23 contain no confirmed StoneX event. The nearest dated items sit just outside or run continuously: (passed 3d ago)
• rolling, 2 business days after any trade — Form 4 filings. Whether the 2026-08-10 director purchase is followed by more buying or by resumed selling is observable within days of each trade. (passed 16d ago)
• within 12 months of 2026-08-12 — Banco Travelex closing, subject to Brazilian Central Bank approval. An approval or a lapse is the checkable outcome. (passed 14d ago)

What Would Change Our Mind

The May consolidation shelf is the whole structural argument: it held on 2026-08-11 at a $64.85 close and it is the only demand evidence on the chart. A weekly close below $64 cuts through it, and at that point the June round-trip stops being a momentum unwind and becomes a trend reversal, with the next reference the pre-May base. A second condition would confirm it fundamentally — the fiscal Q4 print (~2026-12-09 est.) showing net operating revenue below the $719.7M Q3 level, which would make two consecutive declining quarters and put Q2's $829.1M in the past tense. The other direction is equally specific. Recovery of the 2026-08-06 gap on a weekly close back above the $75–80 shelf would argue the post-print drop was forced liquidation rather than a repricing of the earnings power. Form 4 filings showing officer or director purchases materially above the $161,206 already disclosed would say insiders read the $64–68 zone the same way. And listed-derivative contract volume holding near the 97,944K Q3 count with rate per contract at or above $2.61 in the Q4 report would remove the single most cited bear line — that the volatility cycle that produced +125% revenue growth in that business is over.

Correlation Notes

• Revenue is keyed to exchange-traded volume and volatility, so the fundamental beta runs with the listed-derivatives complex — CME, IBKR, Marex, Virtu — rather than with lending banks. No correlation coefficient is measured here; the exposure map is the point.
• Interest income sits on client float, with average daily client equity of $15.0B in Q3 FY26 including roughly $6B added with R.J. O'Brien. Front-end rate cuts compress that line directly while balances stay flat.
• Screeners still group the name with crypto exchanges even though digital assets are a negligible revenue sliver; the 2026-08-18 EDX Markets collaboration with StoneX Digital will reinforce that grouping without materially changing the revenue mix.
• The Commercial segment ($452.2M operating revenue in Q3 FY26, +97% YoY) carries agricultural and physical-commodity exposure, extended again by the 2026-08-19 feed-ingredients acquisition, so grain and protein volatility feeds the top line.
• The Payments segment adds emerging-market FX exposure, which the pending Banco Travelex purchase concentrates in Brazil.